Trade4: Long USDJPY (+7 pips)
Continuing to but the dip in the yen pairs, this one has broken out of an important sideways channel and made a new high,it was covered in the trade setups link further down this post. The trade was taken at the previously identified red trigger line marking the sideways channel and previous high, this may be a small move but could just as easily be the USD changing direction. It has coincided with a break of trend on the EURUSD and a turn lower in the AUDUSD, if it is the resumption of the expected USD strength it could deliver trades in many areas.
Trade 3: Short GBPAUD (0 pips)
This trade was highlighted in the "Trade Set up Section" yesterday and you can read the full explanation there. It follows on from yesterdays successful GBPNZD trade adn makes use of a retest of the identified trigger line. Not well managed, trademade it to +40 but i thought it had further to go, ended up closing at zero.
Trade 2: Long NZDUSD (-15 pips)
A very bearish view of th edollar is starting to develop and with the commodities doing retty well this has a chance of doing well, it is really a follow on from yesterdays trade which in hindsight i should not have closed. I try to be really conservative adn risk averse but on occasions like this I would be better off letting it run.
Trade 1: Long AUDJPY (+20 pips)
The ongoing policy to buy the dip in Yen pairs continues but ths time I have moved to the Aussie rather than the EUR or USD. I guess this is the ultimate risk on trade backed up by rising stock markets yesterday and a very strong 10 days for the crucial commodities of copper and oil. Of course there is always the chance that those to commodities will turn bearish today and put and end to this trade. I have oil in a coninued bull market but copper close to the top of its range before I epect it to turn lower in the coming days. Cross market analysis is always important with these Risk trades and the position of the USDJPY is suer important, as i stated with yesterdays EURJPY trade for this to be a success the USDJPY must not break below the channel that has defined it for the last few days abreak and hold below 111 would make the chance of success here virtually zero. The AUD is showing strength against all of the majors, it seems to be mid way through advances against the USD and the EUR. The AUDNZD positioning is not as clear as the Aussie seems to be pulling back some what against the Kiwi but they are highly correlated and the move is within a fairly defined range. On the economic front data has been strong everywhere including Australia which had good employment data last week, the all important chinese data has been a little mixed this month with retail showing strength but industrial figures more mixed.
The technical picture is a fairly straightforward one, typical for my style of trading, a triggerline was set at a recent high and the trade taken when price crosses the line. The trigger itself was not the best, it was at the top of a long wick from a candel, I often ignore these wicks and set the trigger at the candel close but it just did not look right. Targets are the usual 50/30 and i will be lookng to get out once (and if) the trade gets above 35 pips
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