Trade 4 : Long USDJPY (0 pips)
Tracking the indices, Bloomerg TV stated that 80% of the time the US indices have a positive day following a drop of more than 1% on the previous day. Hard to check that fact but they are usually pretty reliableand of course if the stock indices have a positive day so will the USDJPY, seems a bit of a long shot but it does have some technical backing. Price has broken through the short term trendline that defined the drop yesterday and has made a new high closing above a red trigger line. I have taken the trade but am going to watch it closely being ready to close at any sign of trouble, I will look to get risk free asap
Trade 3 Short EURGBP (-10)
The pound moved sharply lower today on the release of better than expected retail sales data, I had a trigger line in place (red line on chart) but it flew so far through it I did not feel confident to buy. Quite often movements on news prove to be unreliable and retrace very quickly so I decided to wait for a little while to ensure the break was real. Price closed below the pink trend line then retested it and moved lower, this seems a reasonable point to enter with good risk reward of 2:1. This is another slow moving pair so targets are quite small.
Trade 2 Long USDAD (-22 pips)
Identified in the planned trade section and traded earlier in the week, I dont expect the USDJPY to break the 108 low. Obviously it could and recent weaknes has increased that chance however a pullback is quite likely at some stage. This seems a good way to play any USD pullback especially as OPEC chatter has died down and CAD will suffer from risk aversion. Technicals are pretty good, break of trend line and trigger line, its not an easy pair to trade as it bounces around making slow progress.
Trade 1 Short USDJPY (+50 pips)
I completely missed the big yen move yesterday, I never chase moves so once it had gone I just had to watch it. Eventually we got a pullback and then a break of trendline which offered a short term entry point. The blue box is the area I expected the pair to change direction and move higher, having gone straight through the area without a hint of a stop it shows the power of the move and that it is of a slightly longer term pattern. Coming into view is an old trend channel (orange) which defined the pair from December 2016, we will have to watch the pair carefully but the possibility exsts that a substantial change is at hand. It is too early to be sure but we must watch the worlds stock markets carefully. If the indices continue with yesterdays fall then expect the Yen to continue its surge. The possibility of an unwinding of risky leveraged positions could lead to a significant risk averse move.
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