Trade 3 Short NZDUSD (+100 pips)
This is trade was identified in the 'trade set up of the month' it appears that it may have turned around at the bottom of the identified area and 4 consecutive decision candles suggest that the pair may be turning lower, a long stop is needed so it is a relatively small trade. Of greater concern is the incomplete wave sequence, so far we have 3 swings which means that it is possible that the trade will follow the alternative grey path shown in the chart below.
Trade 1 Long GBPJPY (-22 pips)
Trade 2 Long EURJPY (-20 pips)
Got to confident and the market taught me a lesson yet again
Buy pullbacks on the yen pairs, the message can not be any clearer. The economic reason for this is overwhelming. Geo political problems have largely subsided, the qorld economy is doing very well, European economies appear to be exiting years of slow growth and the vix index has become stuck at low levels. Combined with this is the push from monetary policy, the ECB are in the process of moving to a neutral outlook. The BoE have a strong economy and growing inflation at the same time as record low interestrates and a large QE scheme, they are worried about Brexit but that is years waya and inflation is not. Truly stuck between a rock and a hard place. All of this at the same time as the BoJ has fixed its ten year bond rate at zero and is determned to press on with its loose monetary policy as it pulls Japan out of decades of negative growth and inflation. As the old sayings go lets make hay while the sun shines and its not over till its over
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