Trade 2 Short GBPCAD (-50 pips)
MPC vote 5-3 on rate hike
I was stunned by this vote, poor economic data seems to have been outweighed by the inflation data. The members who voted for a rate hike are external so the influence is less than the core members but it does mean we will not see any further easing. I remain scepticle about the UK economy but am forced to stand aside for the time being.
Trade 1 Short USDJPY (-20 pips)
TRADE Close SL Hit -20 pips
No clear reason why the USDJPY moved significantly higher but it has and th estop loss has been hit. Most obvious possibility is that the recovery set in motion by the fed rate rise is not yet complete, it has been a very difficult week so far, trades have been in short supply with this week packed with event risk.
The trade was opened when price broke an ascending trend line indicating the rise caused by the fed rate rise may be coming to an end. My prediction for the USDJPY calls for lower levels eventually reaching 1.08 before turning higher. Economic data has been notcably weak and i expect that the recent price rate rise will have been fully priced in, the FEDand Mrs Yellen presented what i thought was a slightly less hawkish view of the outlook reducing inflation forecasts for this year but holding future years steady. The flattening yield curve and the fact that market implied forecasts for a third rate hike fell below 50% or the first time in a while added to the view that the USDJPY might fall
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