President Trump has made it clear that he will be an America first leader. No longer will America be entering agreements, organisation’s and coalitions that do not benefit the US. Trump has shown little interest in NATO and even less in defending Eurpean states that do not pull their weight with defense spending, I don’t think this means the US are less likely to use military force however they will only do it when America stands to gain. Trade deals will no longer offer access to the US markets without a significant gain for US manufacturers, the previous defender of freedom and liberty is likely to become a transactional deal making nation. Common values will likely be ignored and common gain will replace it.
In this environment, Russia and president Putin stand to gain, they will have much more room to work and a growing populist movement in Europe will likely begin a new axis of power and policy. The old liberal Politically Correct politics have had their day.
The potential flash point is China, it will be a tough year for President Xi, later in the year China will choose its new leaders for the coming decade. Xi will want to improve his power base and will feel the need to respond robustly to any international incidents, an overreaction from China combined with leaders in Russia and America who do not look like they will back away from conflict presents a significant risk of a major military conflict for the first time in decades.
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