Short Gold (+80 pips)
Slight change to the blog, I now have a number of people subscribing to my signals and as a result I am going to update the blog when trades close not when they are opened.
This gold trade opened Friday 16th and was left open over the weekend, itis now approaching an inflection are where a turn higher is likely and has become oversold on a number of indicators, the prudent thing to do is to book the profit.
Trade 2 Short GBPCAD (-50 pips)
MPC vote 5-3 on rate hike
I was stunned by this vote, poor economic data seems to have been outweighed by the inflation data. The members who voted for a rate hike are external so the influence is less than the core members but it does mean we will not see any further easing. I remain scepticle about the UK economy but am forced to stand aside for the time being.
Trade 1 Short USDJPY (-20 pips)
TRADE Close SL Hit -20 pips
No clear reason why the USDJPY moved significantly higher but it has and th estop loss has been hit. Most obvious possibility is that the recovery set in motion by the fed rate rise is not yet complete, it has been a very difficult week so far, trades have been in short supply with this week packed with event risk.
The trade was opened when price broke an ascending trend line indicating the rise caused by the fed rate rise may be coming to an end. My prediction for the USDJPY calls for lower levels eventually reaching 1.08 before turning higher. Economic data has been notcably weak and i expect that the recent price rate rise will have been fully priced in, the FEDand Mrs Yellen presented what i thought was a slightly less hawkish view of the outlook reducing inflation forecasts for this year but holding future years steady. The flattening yield curve and the fact that market implied forecasts for a third rate hike fell below 50% or the first time in a while added to the view that the USDJPY might fall
Trade 3 Long AUDUSD (-5 pips)
Last week the Australian economy recorded some good results with better than expected GDP figures showing a 0.3% increase. China released better than expected export and import figures adding more positive impetus.
Trade 2 Short GBPAUD (+58pips)
This trade is very similar to trade 1 but takes advantage of the fat that the Aussie is approaching a break higher against the dollar and had a very good economic week.
Trade 1 Short GBPUSD (+56 pips)
The political risk to the pound just keeps getting worse i wrote about it on the economic blog. Whenever a good technical position arrives it is a good idea to sell the pound. It is however very volatile and can snap back easily so i will take proft at the first sign of trouble.
Trade 2 Long EURJPY (-20 pips)
This trade appeared as the tradeof the day in the forex signals section of this website on June 2nd, after a sudden jump it has closed above the red trigger line and the trade has activated. It does have great potential but there is sbstantial event risk tomorrow with the UK election and an ECB meeting. The USDJPY has also turned higher but we are only expceting a temporry bounce before another turn lower. As a result this is not suitable as a long term trade.
Long NZDUSD (+41 pips)
A repeat of yesterdays trade, th epullback from the high may have ended. The daily chart shows for considerable gains for this pair and i will continue to buy the duips until the pair either reaches target or fails to do so with an end of the uptrend.
Trade 1 Long ANZAC
I was not ready for the big move in th eyen pairs and so missed it, you can not join in when the move has already started, when its gone its gone. I am still expecting some USD weakness but the Euro appears to be just as weak and the prospect of trading the GBP before the election results arrive is pretty scary. I will be looking to trade the pound on election night. I made a lot of money on brexit night and trump election night so hopefully this election will be just as good.
For todays trade i could not decide between Long AUDUSD and long NZDUSD, in the end I ook them both at half size making one trade in total. The NZD has a better structure, with considerable upside expected, in fact my 4 hour chart is calling for 0.7250 in 5 waves in which wave 3 may just have got going. Unfortuatly it did not have a pullback, i always prefer to trade pullbacks and rarely trade when one is absent. The Ausie does not have as good a structure, the 4 hour chart is close to an inflection point, however it has an excellent pullback opportunity.
I do not have any trades for the comng hours so i will be concentrating on building my blog, in particular the eductaion area which i want to expand as well as planning the next project 100k. I want to get the planning for that to a really high standard so that the next attempt works.
Short EURAUD (+47 pips)
I didnt get an image at the time of taking the trade, am really busy this morning prearing for the week ahead. This trade is approaching target now, as i use this blog to record my trades for my own analysis as well as to imform others i have posted it. Sorry its not much use to those looking for trade ideas, Monday morning is always hectic expecially after Fridays moves which were significant and have made me re-assess the fortunes for the USD. The falling yield on the US 10 year is of particular concern, as the whole curve flattens the market is sending the fed a message. The fed will either listen and pullback on rate hikes or we will get a concerted effort by fed speakers to inform the market they are going to raise, they will not raise rated with the market pricing in a low probability. Either the fed will talk the markets around or the rise will come of the table and the USD will become weaker.
Trade 3: Long EURAUD (0 pips)
Fall in the aussie called trade 2 to fail but brought this opportunity which i was quick to grab
Trade 2: Long AUDJPY (-12 pips)
I have been saying for months now 'buy the dip in th eyen pairs' and this is just another example of what has been my most successful strategy of 2017. The Aussie has lagged of late and i have been trading it lower against the USD but a nice set up has emerged on the AUDJPY daily, it is a classic example of what i do, a significant pullback, break of trend line, new high defined by trigger line. Of course it may fail more than 30% do!
Trade 1 Long EURGBP (+35 pips)
I will continue to look for opportunities to go short the GBP until after the election at which point i will re-assess. This trade is the third in a few days on this pair and is really a short term range trade, the recent high seems to be strong resistance so I hope to trade up to it and then close
Trade 2 Long CADJPY (-20 pips)
Buy the yen pairs that was th ethemes of last month and the first two trades this month follow it. I wanted to take the GBPJPY but th evolatility and margin requirements of that pair put me off. The cadjpy had good technicals breaking out of a strong channel and it has some merit on the daily as it may well have made a long term bottom and be heading considerbly higher. This is just a day trade so not wishing to play the longer time frame.
Trade 1 Long USDJPY (+35 pips)
Yesterday was a great day with a 100% hit rate, a great way to end the month. First trade of a new month follows my prediction for USDJPY strength, I am not sure if a new low is needed before the upturn begins however this trade follows a clear technical break of trendline and on balance is worth the risk. USDJPY is an unusual pair as it can spend long periods consoldating with a small daily range, then when it gets going it really motors, this is good as well asbad as it can motor to the stop as easily as the target. Stop loss is quite tight just allowingfor a retest of the trendline and ichimoku cloud