Conservative lead falls
The conservative lead in the election polls has dropped from more than 20% to less than 5%, this brought about the fall in the pound towards the end of last week. More of the same can be expected if polling data continues to favor labour, history suggests that these losses will reverse should Labour actually win.
UK GDP Below expectation 2.0% rather than 2.1%
A 0.1% miss is not the end of the world but it does come on the back of a series of weaker than expected UK data points. It is still too early for a Brexit effect so we are left looking at a slowdown in consumer spending as the likely cause. More fuel to the GBP bonfire.
FED Minutes released
They could not be clearer they are going to raise rates in June, it would take an enormous turn of events for them to hold now. The problem is that long term Bond rates are staying low flattening the yield curve which implies lower growth in the longer term
The Fed are also getting ready to cut the balance sheet, expect them to stop re investing this year that, in itself will cause rates to rise as it will be one less major buyer in the market.
Bitcoin priced at $2,700
The rise in usage in Asia after the Bank of Japan decided to allow bitcoin as payment caused a sudden spike in price. I have no idea what the real value of a Bitcoin is maybe $5,000 maybe $50 perhaps $50,000 or even $0.50. It looks like a classic bubble but when will pop and at what price?
Bank of Canada Hold Rates
As expected nobody except the fed are in any kind of rush to hike rates, if oil continues to rise in price along with the other hard commodities it won’t be that long before Canada, Australia and New Zealand join the fed on a slow hiking cycle
Forex Trade Results
A good week last week hit rate climbed back above 60% with 8 out of 13 trades being successful for a total of +297 pips which is quite a long way above target. The week was helped out by two big GBP short trades. I will be refining my trading plan again this week as I look to loose some of my loosig trdes and concentrate more on the successful 'pull back' strategy i use.
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